【全投資家必見!】相場サイクルと投資家心理がのぞき見できるウォールストリート・チートシート[日本語初解説]

【全投資家必見!】相場サイクルと投資家心理がのぞき見できるウォールストリート・チートシート[日本語初解説]

On the left is the Wallstreet cheat sheet and on the right is the Bitcoin chart.If you compare them like this, you will see that they are surprisingly similar.Bitcoin rose with enthusiasm like this and then fell sharply. Let’s take a look at individual stocks in the U.S. Hello everyone.The theme of this video

Is the WallStreet Cheat Sheet, which allows you to look at market cycles and investment psychology, excluding investment psychology.This kind of experience. Have you ever experienced this? You’re

In a state of excitement because the stocks you own skyrocket and your unrealized gains keep increasing, but then the market suddenly takes a turn and the unrealized gains disappear, causing you to feel impatient and panic. Many people may not be familiar with

The Wallstreet Cheat Sheet that I will introduce this time, but it is an investment that shows how the investment psychology changes according to market movements. This is a material that can be called a map of home psychology.By watching this video,

You can understand the psychological states that investors tend to fall into depending on market movements, and by knowing this, you can prevent yourself from grabbing the high or low price. It also allows you to escape before you get caught up in a market crash. Please

Watch the video until the end. What I am currently displaying is a document called the Wall Three Cheat Sheet. This is a material that explains the investor psychology that appears in the market.The vertical axis represents the price, and the horizontal axis represents

Time.As the price approaches the peak of its rise, and as the price declines from the peak, the investment psychology changes. It is a diagram that shows the change in psychological state using emotional expressions and colors.Before looking at the details, I would like to first look at the overall flow,

But this is the stage just before this upward trend begins. The red color indicates feelings of doubt, perhaps because the market is still holding on to the feelings of the previous down market,

And the blue and green colors on the chart indicate that as the price continues to rise, feelings of hope and optimism are born. And as the market rises further and approaches its peak, that relief

Turns into confidence and excitement, which is now expressed in green.The moment it seems that the market will continue to rise, the market rises to the top. The weight of the market is showing, and a sense of caution begins to appear in investment psychology.This

Is expressed in yellow.If the price starts to fall further from there, the sense of caution will turn into anxiety and impatience. In Ikishima, the change in emotions such as panic and anger is expressed in orange and red.Then

, as the stagnation in Sokone Prefecture continues, the anger turns into resignation, and the sisters continue to decline. Even if the market approaches the beginning of a rising market, the trend is for a new rising cycle to begin without believing in the signs of upswing.If

You have ever experienced investment trading, you have experienced this at least once . I think it shows the emotions that people may have.There is a saying in the stock market saying that a rising market is born in pessimism, grows up in meetings, matures in optimism, and disappears in happiness.

You can see that it is expressed like this.This cheat sheet is often compared with the Bitcoin chart.On the right side, the weekly pair of Bitcoin and US dollar is displayed.The data is from 2020 onwards. It’s showing the movement. If you compare it with the cheat sheet on the left,

You’ll see that it’s very similar in shape. Especially around November 2021. It was around $70,000 at the time. The price has just risen to about this point, but the way it suddenly falls from there seems to be exactly as it is expressed in this cheat sheet.And

This similarity is not only seen in the market from 2020 onwards . On the right side , you can see a chart from the 2017 virtual currency bubble between Bitcoin and the US dollar . Some of you may remember the 2017 virtual currency bubble, but at that time Bitcoin was

This was when the price rose very enthusiastically to the then-high $20,000 level and then suddenly fell to nearly $4,000.If you look at the movements at that time, especially this one. I think the movement around the top is very similar to a cheat sheet.It’s

The part that expresses feelings of transparency and self-satisfaction, but this movement from 20,000 dollars.1 from this 20,000 dollars. I think the movement in this part is very similar to this cheat sheet , where it falls once and then rises again, but it can’t make a new

High and suddenly falls.Then, Bitcoin’s first big rise. What is said to be the market price is the 2014 market price, and you can see that the price at that time was similar to the cheat sheet.At that time, the price rose rapidly to a high of around $1,200,

And then rose from there to $200. I can see that it moves in a way that could be called falling until it gets close.I think that the movement when a ceiling around $1,200 is attached is very similar to the water permeability and self-satisfaction stages described in this cheat sheet. Yes, and then

The movement of the price dropping towards $200 at once is similar to the cheat sheet.In particular, this stagnation phase since the beginning of 2015 is also exactly as depicted in the cheat sheet. I think you can understand that.The

Price of Bitcoin at that time went through this stagnation phase and then rose rapidly from there.Now then, here is the detailed description of investment psychology depicted in the cheat sheet. I would like to check this, but I

Will display a chart of the Bitcoin and US dollar pair on the right side, so if you were investing in Bitcoin at the time, I think it would be interesting to look back on the feelings you had at the time. Now, let’s follow the flow of the cheat sheet and

Look at it from the left side.First of all, it’s the part just before the uptrend starts.As I said at the beginning, before the uptrend starts, it’s the end of the down market. However, since the market is in a range, we

Are still not sure whether this rise is genuine or not.Yes, it is written here as suspicious, but at this stage, even if there has been a slight rise. It shows that there are many people who think that it will fail again or that it will not last

Forever.If you compare it with the Bitcoin chart, it is shown by the red vertical line. But then the corona shock hit, and the stock market went down.That was the moment when crypto assets as a whole went down a lot, but since then it has recovered a little, and

People have these feelings. The next step is the phase of hope.If the rising market continues, it may be possible to recover from a declining market to an upward market, albeit little by little. There will be a phase in which more and more people will begin to have such

Hopes.If the increase continues, the next phase will be optimism.The cheat sheet also states that this increase is true. At this stage, many market participants begin to feel positive emotions.If you compare it to the Bitcoin chart , you can see the red horizontal line on the chart.This is the

Highest market price at that time. In other words , the price was at the $20,000 level, which was reached during the virtual currency bubble in 2017

, but it has risen to this level.At this stage, it may have exceeded $20,000 and set a new market high. I think it was around this time that I started to feel that kind of optimistic mood, and I was convinced that the next step was going to be.The

Cheat sheet also said that it was time to invest the entire amount. Although it is written in the wind , it can be said that this is a phase where market participants gain confidence in this rise.In terms of Bitcoin’s chart, this $20,000 mark

Broke the market high at that time. I think the phase after that falls under this confidence phase.At that time, there were many people who were looking at the market with high expectations, wondering how far it would go as it hit a new high of $20,000. I’m really excited about the next phase.

Looking at the cheat sheet, it says things like buying up to 1 cup as margin and telling everyone to proceed with purchasing, so I guess this is where it comes from. I think you could say that it’s starting to heat up quite a bit, but if you

Look at the Bitcoin chart, it’s only after it exceeded $20,000 that it’s rising rapidly. The price gained further momentum and exceeded $20,000 in December 2020 , but then it reached $40,000 in January 2021, so the price increased in less than two weeks. Since it has doubled,

I think this stage can be described as the state of excitement described in the cheat sheet.And the final stage in the upward trend is this phase of permeability. It’s written like it’s a genius , but if it’s the end of a market that has been rising with such enthusiasm,

There will be market participants who will be under that illusion . In comparison, it was January 2021 when it exceeded $40,000. Temporary declines like this do occur, but the upward momentum has not weakened and it has reached $40,000 since then. Three months later, it exceeded $60,000.At this time, I still remember,

There were predictions that Bitcoin would exceed $100,000 in the future. I think there are predictions that the yen will break through.Of course , I think there are also predictions that are based on calm analysis and come up with such numbers . As written in this cheat sheet,

I think it was at a stage where it wouldn’t be surprising if there were market participants who were in a state of flux. Yes, Bitcoin once exceeded $60,000 and then dropped significantly, but there it was. Since then, the price has started to rise again,

Surpassing the previous high of $60,000, and rising to just below $70,000 at that time, so I guess the area just before $70,000 also falls under this permeability phase. That’s what I think.The next phase of water flow is a phase of self-satisfaction.What

Kind of phase is this ?It is a phase where the price is not able to exceed the recent high price and is treading water a little. So, if you look at what kind of emotional expressions are written on the cheat sheet, it says that

You need to cool your head a little until the next rise, so for now, it is written in the previous time. Although Bitcoin has not been able to hit a new high, I think it

Can be said that this is where I start to feel that it will continue to rise, justifying my expectations.Looking at the Bitcoin chart, If you look at it , it probably falls just before this $70,000 level and then starts to rise again a bit, and

I’m worried about the next phase.In terms of Bitcoin’s chart, it falls just before this $70,000 level. The price falls from a certain point and rebounds once more, but the price has not been able to exceed the previous high price and has reached a new low price.I

Think this area can be said to be the corresponding phase.What kind of emotional expression is this? What I’m saying is that this is a phase where investors start to have feelings like why they’re going to get hit by a crazy goal, or that the current decline will take longer than expected,

And then the decline will progress. As time goes by, this feeling changes to feelings of denial and panic.As for Bitcoin, it is exactly at this 36,000 yen level.After breaking below this level, the decline accelerated and suddenly fell to the 20,000 dollar level. Therefore, when we get to this point,

I think we can say that we are at a stage where we are dominated by emotions such as denial and panic, as mentioned in the cheat sheet . It says that I am investing in a great company , so the price will come back someday. To deny this now

Is to deny this reality. I think it means that you are justifying your point of view.I think this is especially true when it comes to investing in stocks.There are many people who have felt this way, myself included. I don’t think there are that many.Yes , and then there’s the panic part.There are

A lot of words that seem to fall under YouTube’s terms and conditions, so translating them into Japanese is a little difficult. However, it really means that you are panicking. This is the stage where you have gone beyond denial and are in panic mode.

And this is the next phase of panic, and it is often mentioned in Capulet News etc. I’m sure many of you know this word , but it means happiness.Yes, it means that the panic has passed and you are completely raising the white flag.See the emotional expressions below.

It says that it is a complete 100% expulsion from the market.Yes, and the next phase of happiness is anger.When you reach this stage, the emotions that up until then were mostly directed inward. You can see that we are at a stage where we start to look outward.If

You look at the examples written here, there are feelings towards the outside, such as who is shorting the market, and why the government is not doing anything. There is an explanation that this is the phase when people start to get angry.In terms of Bitcoin’s chart, this is the $20,000 level.This is exactly

The stage where it has stagnated for a while and then fallen below that level. The last phase is this depression, which is said to be a breath of fresh air, but it is the point that corresponds to the bottom of this declining market.If you look at the emotional expression, even if you have

No retirement funds. I wonder how I can pay for these things that are completely gone, or that I bought recently.There are expressions like, “I’m a young man ,” but I feel this kind of self-loathing. It can be said that it is at this stage that the market

Will start to rise.After that, it will start to rise, but this rise is due to the emotions and negative experiences experienced during this down market still prevailing. This means that a state of disbelief continues as if this is the real thing.And by reducing these increases, the next upward market cycle begins.The

Explanation is that the market moves in such a cycle. This material is called the Wallstreet Cheat Sheet.If you have ever experienced any of the investment trades, you will have experienced it at least once.It is a summary of the emotions that correspond to market movements. I think it

‘s a very interesting document, and as I mentioned earlier in Bitcoin’s past market movements, these market cycles are not necessarily in the same way as a cheat sheet, but they do have a certain shape. Repeating in cycles is an important feature of the market that must be kept in mind.Next, I

Would like to take a look at other stocks where the shape of this cheat sheet appears.Yes, look at the charts of individual stocks. Before we get started, I would like to introduce an example of a financial product where cheat sheets tend

To appear.This is just my personal impression, but this form tends to appear in crypto assets and individual stocks, so it is called individual stocks. This pattern occurs regardless of whether it is American stocks, Japanese stocks or other countries.I think the common keyword for both is a rise accompanied by enthusiasm.In other words,

It is a stock that rose sharply due to a temporary boom. This kind of movement is likely to occur , so

I would like to talk about foreign exchange. Basically, foreign exchange is a range market when viewed over a span of 10, 20, or 50 years, so I don’t think you will see it much . I am displaying the weekly chart of something called XRP, and if you

Look at its movements since 2020, it has risen sharply like this, and since then it has turned into a decline that can be said to be almost a complete recovery. I think the way things are going is very similar to a cheat sheet

, especially the situation of stagnation in this bottom prefecture since June 2020.The reason is that the right side of the cheat sheet was mentioned earlier. I think this is very similar to the phase of anger and small items.Continuing from crypto assets, this time there is a brand called Cardano, but this brand also

Started to rise at a tremendous rate from the beginning of 2021, and then turned around in 2021. As we enter the second half of 2023, you can see that the price has fallen with such force that it seems as if all the gains up to that point have been fully recovered.In particular,

The movement in this stagnation phase from the beginning of 2023 is as I mentioned earlier. The anger I saw on the cheat sheet I think you can see that it is exactly the same as the awareness phase.Next, I would like to look at individual stocks, but first, starting with Japanese stocks, I

Am displaying a chart of the stock price of a company called this base.This company is Net. This is a company that provides a shopping platform.It seems like it went public in the second half of 2019, but after the coronavirus shock in 2020, the stock price has risen rapidly.It

Means that people can’t go out due to the coronavirus. I think one of the factors is that the demand for considering establishing an online shop has increased, but in 2021 , the stock price also hit a plateau, and around the middle of 2022. Then,

The decline progressed to a level that almost canceled out the rise caused by the corona shock.As you can see, this shape is very similar to a cheat sheet.Next is the stock price of an American company called Peloton. This is a company that

Sells exercise bikes and other fitness equipment, so this company’s stock price rose significantly during the coronavirus pandemic, especially during the first year. However, similar to the company mentioned earlier, demand for indoor exercise increased as people could not go out due to the coronavirus,

And the stock prices of companies that provide indoor fitness equipment rose. There is a background like this , but from the second half of 2021, we started to see the signs of a plateauing in stock prices,

And by the second half of 2022, it appears that all of the rise since the corona shock will be canceled out. The decline has progressed, especially since the second half of 2022, and I think you can see that

This stagnation in the lowest price prefecture is exactly like the cheat sheet we saw earlier. I have introduced examples that appear in the market price , but

I would also like to introduce a document similar to a cheat sheet called the four phases of a bubble.This document was created by Canadian transportation geographer Jean-Paul Rodríguez in the aftermath of the Lehman shock. This document was released around the time, and it

Attracted attention because it presented a model that states that bubbles are formed through four stages.It is interesting to learn why traffic psychologists are conducting market research. However, that is the document here.If you look at the overall shape,

You will see that it is very similar to the cheat sheet mentioned earlier.It is like this, after a very rapid rise, there is a complete reversal. The difference between this and the Cheat Sheet is that it describes the four stages that form this kind of market cycle

, and that it describes the main points for each phase. It also describes the market participants who will be the players in the bubble.Also , the material on the four phases of this bubble also describes how the psychology of market participants changes in response to market movements

. There is a dot written there, but this point is almost the same as the cheat sheet earlier, so I would like to omit it.I would like to look at the four phases in which this bubble is formed, but the first phase is this one. The one on the far left

Is the stealth phase.Stealth is sometimes referred to as a stealth fighter, but it means you can’t see it, so this stage can be said to be a stage where no one is paying attention yet.Yes. The second one from the left is

Awareness , and I think this can be described as a phase of awareness.In other words, some investors realized that the market had started to rise. This is the stage where you start investing money.The third stage is the mania phase.In Japanese, mania is used to mean otaku, but in English it

Means enthusiasm.In other words, this phase is mania. It’s a phase.As mentioned earlier in the cheat sheet, it is a phase in which the market price rises rapidly.The last stage is the blow-off phase, but blow-off means to blow it away , so until then. There is a phase in which

All the rises at this stage are blown away.Next, I would like to take a look at the market participants who are the key players in each phase.First, let’s look at the stealth phase on the far left . It is written as “smart money.”Smart money generally

Refers to large investors such as banks, securities companies, hedge funds, and insurance companies.It means institutional investors.Smart means wise. Therefore , it is a FES where the large amount of professional funds and the funds of the capital are equalized.The second is institutional investors, but

This term also refers to period investment, so this is the term. I didn’t understand why they were written separately about smart money and institutional investors , but perhaps it was during this period that some of the more foresighted investors invested their funds. This

May be referred to as the stealth phase.Then there is the third enthusiasm phase , and the main participants at this stage are the public, or the general public.The general public here. The general public is a group of people who are not normally interested in investing, but become interested in investing

When an asset or stock that rises with such enthusiasm emerges. Yes, I often hear that when popular media such as TV or weekly magazines start talking about stocks or the crypto assets I introduced earlier , it seems like the market is over. However, the same thing is written here as well.It is

Depicted that after a while the general public participates, the market comes to an end and starts to decline like this.This time. I have looked at market cycles and investment psychology through two materials , but

I think there are three important lessons in the Goal Leed Cheat Sheet.The first is that there are cycles in the market. As we saw in the Bitcoin chart, some assets and stocks have similar movements that repeat over a span of several years or decades.Such cycles can also be seen

In the assets and stocks that you are usually interested in. Something may be emerging, so please check it out.The second thing is that it is dangerous when the general public starts to get excited.As we saw in the cheat sheet earlier, there is a sudden momentum like this. After the price goes up,

There is a high possibility that the price will be grabbed at a high price, so you need to be careful.Conversely, after the price goes up at such a rapid rate, it is also possible for the general public2 to When the enthusiasm is felt,

It is time to consider exiting the position.Third and last, when the general public loses interest, it is time to prepare for a new trend to start. Using the example of the cheat sheet from earlier, this is the phase where you are feeling angry or angry.This is the

Cheat sheet that I introduced this time.If you keep it in your mind, you will be able to predict the same market cycle next time. I think it will also help you to calmly watch the market when the market starts.If you found this video helpful,

Please rate it highly and it will be helpful for creating future videos.Also, this video will help investors We are talking about ways to prevent high price grabbing and low price grabbing from the perspective of positioning , so if you are interested in investment psychology

, please watch it as well. That’s all for this video. See you next time. See you in the video Goodbye till

この動画では相場サイクルに沿って投資家心理がどのように変化するのかを描いたウォールストリート・チートシートという資料について解説します。

自分の持っている銘柄が急上昇し含み益が増えるに従って興奮を覚える、と思ったら相場が一転して急落。あれだけあった含み益は全て消え焦りやパニック、怒りまで覚える。

こうした経験をしたことがある方は多いのではないでしょうか?

ウォールストリート・チートシートは相場の上昇や下落のサイクルで投資家の感情がどのように変化するのかを描いた投資家心理の地図とも呼べる資料です。

この動画を見ることで、相場の動きに応じて投資家が陥りがちな心理状態がわかるほか、高値掴み・安値掴みを防ぐことや、暴落前に撤退する判断をすることにも役立ちますのでぜひ参考にしてください。

🟦動画の構成
– ウォールストリート・チートシートとは？
– ビットコインチャートとの驚くべき類似性
– チートシートに描かれた投資家心理とは？
– チートシートが現れている銘柄
– バブルが形成される4つの段階
– チートシートの3つの教え

🟧関連動画
✅【◯◯を意識】高値掴みをしないためのシンプルな3つの対策

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[タイムライン]
00:15 オープニング
01:07 ウォールストリート・チートシートとは？
02:39 ビットコインチャートとの驚くべき類似性
04:49 チートシートに描かれた投資家心理とは？
13:20 チートシートが現れている銘柄
16:25 バブルが形成される4つの段階
19:53 チートシートの3つの教え

#投資家心理 #大衆心理 #チャート読解 #ウォールストリートチートシート #株式投資 #FX

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