2024年，中国外贸“峰回路转”！三大地区将会受益，影响上亿人
Guanyin paradise is a round of wealth life Hello, everyone. I am a hundred years. When real estate ebbs When the local finance is under pressure again. Many people are concerned Where is the driving force of China’s economy in 2024 Recently, statistics from the Bureau of Statistics tell us an answer. November 2023
China’s export growth up 0.5 percent year-on-year in month At this time, after seven months China’s export growth rate turned positive for the first time This figure reveals a trend. That is 2024. It is expected to be another export year. On the map of our country Three areas will benefit.
The next foreign trade situation to pick up The jobs and incomes of hundreds of millions of people will also be affected. For people engaged in foreign trade ah 2023 is definitely an extraordinary year. After 2020. After the hot market in 2021 In 2023, China’s exports will be completely cold.
January to October last year China’s cumulative export growth rate is negative year-on-year. 5.8 percent growth Especially last July. That month, exports fell 1 degree to 14.2 percent. It can be said that after the outbreak was partially interrupted. the momentum of economic recovery That’s when it started. Some pessimistic voices began to appear
For example, the Sino-US decoupling theory Industry migration theory and so on. But we need to be clear about a perception That’s the export figures for 2023. Although, on the whole, it doesn’t look so good. But there are many bright spots in the structure. China’s foreign trade industry is still advancing against the trend
First of all, the export of high-tech products is increasing. The results of industrial upgrading Further reflect the opening of China’s export products list in 2023 Cars and spare parts New energy battery Photovoltaic communication has become the highest growth rate of export products Among them, January to October 2023 Auto exports up 88.5 percent
Top all products In this context 2023 China’s vehicle exports more than 5 million vehicles It surpassed Japan for the first time in history. Become the world’s largest auto export country And this number, ah, spans from 1 million to 5 million It only took three years.
Reference to Japan’s local car production of 80 million vehicles has been able to support nearly 6 million of the jobs China’s auto industry has grown by half of Japan’s in the past three years. The employment opportunities provided cannot be ignored. Except for the car.
The export volume of new energy battery photovoltaic products also increased by more than 30%. Communication export growth rate of nearly 20% It’s also a bright spot on last year’s export report card. Ah to this. Xinhua commented. Compared to the old three kinds of clothing furniture home appliances new energy vehicle
Lithium battery photovoltaic products have become China’s new export three In addition, in the shipbuilding industry Shipbuilding Completed in China Last Year New orders accounted for half of the world market share. What about South Korea, which was once on an equal footing with China’s shipbuilding industry?
We have been completely squeezed into the second tier countries With Japan in one column Speaking of Korea In 2023, it is also since statistics For the first time in history, China has a foreign trade surplus with South Korea. This can also prove
On top of the division of labor in the global industrial chain We have risen to the same level as Korea In addition to industrial upgrading Hand over good answers What about 2023? The second report card of China’s export It is to further capture the markets of countries along the Belt and Road.
By country January to October 2023 China’s export growth rate is positive in the country ah. have Russia India ASEAN Latin America Africa and other places Especially Russia. China’s exports to it surge 61.5 percent year-on-year Since the launch of Western companies Chinese industry to seize the opportunity
Effectively seize the huge market with a 0.14 billion population A hundred years of computing. Russia alone can pull 2023 China’s overall export growth rate of nearly two percentage points Here, we still need to clarify a misunderstanding. that our exports to Russia have increased
Will it lose even more of the European and American markets? In particular, some people have pointed out In recent years The share of our exports in U.S. imports is declining. Last year, our country fell to the third largest importer of the United States. Not only Mexico and Canada
It looks as if America’s decoupling strategy is taking effect But this is not the case from a global perspective These two years The proportion of China’s exports in the world’s GDP is still rising further. This proves ah Although direct trade between China and the United States has decreased
But more trade is coming through Mexico. Countries like Vietnam transit On the contrary, the proportion of China’s exports in the world market is increasing. Finally, on the whole. Under the blessing of industrial upgrading and Belt and Road Initiative In 2023, China’s foreign trade industry is still advancing against the trend.
Although the data has declined But the reason is not outside The main reason is the global interest rate hike in 2023. Macroeconomics and popular consumption in various countries are in recession. restricted China’s exports Horizontal comparison with other regions Our export performance is actually good. Last year, like Vietnam India
South Korea’s export performance is much worse than that of mainland China Malaysia and Taiwan The export growth rate is even below negative 10%. But then again The global economy has cycles. 2 years good 1 year bad 2024 With the Federal Reserve as the representative of the major international central banks
Enter the interest rate cut cycle Global consumer recovery China’s foreign trade situation is also expected to turn around. Like in the capital market recently As international capital expectations of the dollar policy rate 2-year U.S. Treasury rate ah From 5.2 percent in October 2023 down a whole percentage point
Then, as the world began to hold down the Fed’s interest rate cut. Hold down the economic repair China’s foreign trade situation also began to take a turn for the better For example, in addition to the November statistics mentioned earlier. The shipping market also provides the latest evidence including a pick-up in foreign trade
According to the freight rate index of our export containers? In early 2024, this index Compared to the lowest point in October 2023 It has risen by nearly 15%. Rule out the recent Houthi armed conflict in Yemen Disturbances to the Mediterranean route Our country to Japan and South Korea Southeast Asian Persian Gulf
Freight rates on other routes, such as the East Coast of the United States, are also rising steadily. Proof that appearance is indeed ten to the key stage of recovery. In addition? Some export-oriented economies similar to China also felt the warm current of global trade For example, the data was released earlier.
December 2023 data are already available Vietnam and South Korea Vietnam’s exports up 11 percent year-on-year It is the highest growth rate since October 2022. South Korea’s exports increased by 5.1 percent. Also certainty back to positive In advance Good news for China’s foreign trade. So comprehensive judgment
The recovery of China’s foreign trade in 2024 will be a big trend. So foreign trade pick-up Which regions will benefit first? What does it matter to our common people? It’s worth noting, yeah at the end of last year. The General Administration of Customs announced the 2022
List of Top 100 Foreign Trade Cities in China This list Can be said to be the most authoritative evaluation A list of the influence of local foreign trade industries on the city’s economy Taking into account the proportion of foreign trade industry in the local GDP Foreign trade innovation ability and other indicators
According to the list Among the top 100 cities Eastern Region has 60 cities shortlisted Among them, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Suzhou are firmly in the top three. And, uh, eastern cities take all the top ten There are 26 cities in the central region. western region and northeast region
There are ten cities and four cities. What about in this list? We can see the three laws that belong to China’s foreign trade center. The first is to focus on the southeast coastal areas This has always been the forefront of China’s foreign trade. For example, Guangdong and Zhejiang three provinces of jiangsu
Together, it accounts for half of the top 50 cities. The second is the capital city of the inland border province For example, Urumqi Harbin has benefited from the Belt and Road Initiative and trade with Russia in the past two years. Urumqi is also on the list for the first time in 2022.
Third, cities with local pillar export industries For example, Anhui Wuhu As the only non-coastal province prefecture-level city in the top 30 There are large export enterprises such as Chery Midea stationed there. I don’t know in this list. Is your city on the list? If on the list Then congratulations 2024
Your city’s economy will have a clear opportunity for recovery. This opportunity is multifaceted For example, export orders have increased. It will bring jobs and external population inflows. 2022 23 years According to media statistics Four major first-tier cities and eastern coastal provinces The rate of population inflow is declining.
This is not unrelated to the shrinking foreign trade situation in the past two years. But as the situation improves China’s population flow will be reversed again Re-gathering jobs in foreign trade-oriented cities The increase in wages not only directly affects the employees of export enterprises.
It will also affect the service industry in the local city. Even the property market sales Businesses and citizens of these cities Be prepared for the opportunity. In addition, from the perspective of the capital market The export recovery also has a significant impact on the stock market.
Because many of China’s listed companies are manufacturing Especially export-oriented enterprises What about history? The export cycle is synchronized with the earnings cycle of listed companies. Like the last bull market in 2020. It has a major relationship with the export recovery after the epidemic.
In addition, the rebound in exports is also conducive to supporting the RMB wallpaper. Some overseas capital will take the opportunity to hold down RMB assets. Early 2024 A- share northbound capital continues to flow in ah Could be a good start to a stock market rally However, from another perspective
The boost of export recovery to China’s economy is not comprehensive. Many cities ah Especially cities in the Midwest There is no local export industry. 2024 In the context of local fiscal expenditure pressure? The economy of these cities is expected to face challenges.
That is to say, China’s regional differentiation characteristics will be more obvious Strong Hengqiang Weak may be weaker. For example, many small towns in the Midwest There are no local export enterprises. The largest consumer group is the financial support personnel within the system. including civil servants Career post Teachers, doctors and so on.
These people’s wages. Also mainly from the central and eastern regions of the transfer payments. However, the just-finished 2023 The Central Economic Work Conference made new demands To strictly control the general expenditure Party and government organs should get used to living a tight life. Expected 2024
The group within the system will usher in a new round of slimming movement Recent rumors about pay cuts within the system Already the wind is jittery If the wages and benefits of this group of people are cut. This is for small cities that rely mainly on the economy within the system.
It’s going to be a big hit. So say, from a more macro point of view China’s economy depends on foreign trade to recover in 2024 This recovery is incomplete. unbalanced In the double cycle strategy We have been emphasizing the domestic cycle. Foreign cycle as a supplement But the reality is
On the one hand, industrial upgrading continues to advance. Gold bonus First reflected in the appearance And the other side has been The local fiscal system that dominates the domestic cycle. including land finance Local debt and other systems To the stall to reform There are blocking points in the domestic large cycle.
The central meeting also set the tone. It’s like the late 1990 s. After the state-owned enterprises shed their burdens. The collapse of the urban economy that relies mainly on the old state-owned enterprises. The rise of foreign trade cities in the southeast coast is the same. Go for a spin.
China is back to the same way it was 20 years ago. So, from this perspective, ah Urban differentiation in China Regional economic divergence may not be just 2024 1 year of time And it could be in the next 3-5 years or even 10 years. Until we rethink the system
The relationship between financial real estate debt Straighten out the logic of the inner loop Before this All we ordinary people can do is Clear understanding of the current reality of China’s economic power Hengqiang To know Even in the booming economy 20 years ago
There are still many places in China that have not boarded the allegro of development. Even more so today. So, focus on the three types of cities mentioned in the past century. including southeastern coastal border provincial capitals and cities with local pillar export enterprises Make decisions about career and city choices Hold on.
Structural Opportunities in 2024 This is the end of the program. Don’t forget to pay attention to 100 years of serious attention to the follow-up moreWhat wonderful content I am a hundred years. Our next period
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